Is a presidency still powerful if the public turns away from it?
As Donald Trump enters the second quarter of his second term as President of the United States, his approval rating is not just a political metric – it’s becoming a constitutional stress test. With numbers hovering in the low- to mid-40s, and disapproval climbing over 50% in multiple polls, Trump’s popularity appears to be hitting early turbulence. And this time, it’s not just about style—it’s about inflation, policy whiplash, and the sharp friction between campaign promises and governing realities.
But beyond the day-to-day drama lies something deeper: when a president loses public trust, how does it affect his ability to wield power constitutionally?
The Numbers: Lowest First-Quarter Average of Any Postwar President
Recent national polls show President Trump’s average approval rating for his first 100 days around 44–45%, with some outlets reporting figures as low as 41%. For comparison:
- Joe Biden, in his first quarter of 2021, averaged 57%.
- Barack Obama in 2009 stood at 63%.
- Even George W. Bush, governing in the shadow of the 2000 election dispute, averaged 58%.
Trump’s numbers don’t just trail his predecessors—they trail his own. In 2017, Trump began his presidency with an approval average of 41%, which rose briefly before falling again. But in 2025, that early “honeymoon” bump has been noticeably absent.
It’s a rare moment in U.S. political history: a returning president starting his second term less popular than when he first arrived.
What’s Driving the Drop?
The short answer: economic anxiety, policy friction, and sustained polarization.
The long answer: many voters who returned Trump to office were expecting sweeping change—particularly around crime, border security, inflation, and institutional accountability. But governing is different than campaigning. Tariff hikes meant to reignite domestic manufacturing have added pressure to already sensitive supply chains. Consumer prices remain volatile. Some of the more aggressive immigration measures, such as deportations under the Alien Enemies Act, have been halted by the courts. And intra-party battles on Capitol Hill have slowed parts of the president’s legislative agenda.
To his base, Trump remains a fighter. But to swing voters—especially independents and suburban moderates—there’s growing concern that the tone hasn’t shifted and the promised “reset” is still stuck in first gear.
Approval Ratings and Article II: Constitutional Power in Practice
Technically, the Constitution doesn’t care about approval ratings. Article II outlines the powers and duties of the president—commander in chief, negotiator of treaties, enforcer of the law—with no mention of public opinion.
But practically? A president’s power is only as strong as the public, Congress, and the courts allow it to be. When a president suffers low approval:
- Congress becomes bolder. Lawmakers in both parties feel less pressure to align with the White House.
- The courts feel more confident asserting independence. Judicial rulings that curb executive action are more likely to stick when the public mood is sour.
- Federal agencies slow down. Quiet resistance within the bureaucracy becomes more visible when presidential authority looks fragile.
In essence, low approval doesn’t take away formal power—but it does erode informal authority, making governance harder and slower.
Comparisons to Other Presidents
There’s precedent for a rocky start—but also warning signs.
- Bill Clinton faced early backlash in 1993 over economic policy and healthcare but rebounded with a booming economy.
- Barack Obama lost public support after stimulus concerns and the Affordable Care Act rollout, but his second-term approval never dropped below 40%.
- George H.W. Bush, after sky-high ratings post-Gulf War, plummeted amid recession and lost reelection.
- Donald Trump in 2017 faced immediate resistance, but could claim novelty and outsider status. In 2025, he doesn’t have that cushion—he owns the record this time.
The public isn’t judging a newcomer. They’re reevaluating a known quantity.
The Bigger Question: What Happens If the President Falls Further?
If President Trump’s approval ratings continue to slide, the implications stretch far beyond poll numbers:
- Will moderate Republicans start distancing themselves before the 2026 midterms?
- Will ongoing investigations—legal or congressional—gain traction with less political blowback?
- Will the president double down on executive action to bypass legislative resistance?
And constitutionally: What does this mean for the separation of powers?
We’ve already seen an aggressive posture from the Supreme Court—blocking certain deportations and scrutinizing executive orders. If Trump’s popularity continues to decline, expect more judicial boldness. Likewise, expect more use of congressional oversight powers—hearings, subpoenas, investigations—especially if the House shifts control in 2026.
Approval, in a democracy, isn’t just popularity. It’s political permission.
Why It Matters
Presidents don’t govern alone. They govern with consent—of Congress, of courts, and of the people. When that consent starts to fray, the whole system creaks under the weight of resistance.
Donald Trump remains a deeply influential figure. But influence without favor becomes a different kind of presidency—one that depends less on unity and more on raw power. That’s a precarious place for any administration to be, particularly in a system designed to check ambition with ambition.
If history is any guide, approval ratings this low this early don’t guarantee failure. But they do set the stage for constitutional friction—and that, more than any single scandal or policy loss, is what shapes presidencies in the long run.